To become a true gambling professional you will need to be disciplined and have nerves of steel, because sometimes it will just not go your way and you will need to persevere with formulae or information you know will produce profits long term. And that's what really matters in this business, long term profits. It does not matter if you lost £1000 on the 3:15 at Kempton if you ended up winning on the day, and equally who cares if you won £10,000 on the National if you blew it all on the Virtual Racing!?
If you were to talk to most people about betting on horses they will undoubtedly tell you something along the lines of "It's a mug's business" or "If it's so easy why doesn't everyone do it?". As a whole, people are predisposed to thinking negatively about gambling, no-one even thinks about the possibility of treating gambling as a profession even though there are a large number of people doing just that!
Then if you were to go on and tell them that you can actually make a consistent living out of horse LOSING half the population will think you have gone mad. The majority of the population are blissfully unaware of the advances within the gambling world and of the ability to lay horses as well as back them as given to us by the Betting Exchanges which have made normal punters like me into professional gamblers making enough money that this is now my full-time job!
In this guide I am going to assume that everyone knows how the betting exchanges work so if I mention anything that you are unfamiliar with feel free to email me and let me know. For anyone that doesn't know how the betting exchanges work then you should check out the help section on the betfair website as they provide you with all you need to know about the exchanges.
Other than that all you need to do is read and absorb the information I give you and you should be on your way to making a nice chunk of money from laying horses.
Right I don't believe in filling out this guide with anything that is not relevant so I am going to jump straight in to how you can start to use laying to create a steady stream of income for yourself while only working 1-2 hours every day.
I am going to now show you how every morning I identify vulnerable favourites that will get beat and then lay them off on the betting exchanges. With this approach I only consider horses that are below 3.5 to lay, meaning my liability never exceeds 2.5 the stake (my profit).
Some of you are probably thinking I have gone a bit crazy here, you're probably wondering why I don't just lay horses that have no chance of winning whatsoever aren't you? Well let's think about it for a second, if I am laying horses at upwards of 10/1 every time one of them comes in it is really going to hit my balance, however when a horse laid at 2.4 comes in the damage to the bank is minimal.
Also the higher you go the more likely you are to find that the odds are artificially inflated due to the betting exchange mentality (people want higher odds than the bookmakers).
Another reason why this is good is because the strike rate we need to get in order for us to profit is much lower the lower the odds.
Now you are probably thinking but isn't the favourite, the favourite for a reason? Not all the time, and that's where we come in. Did you know that the favourite only wins in around 33% of races?
Well it's the 67% of times that we are looking to expose and profit! To find these reasons you will need to find at least 2 good reasons why the favourite may not win and you will also need to find some other horses that have the ability to beat the favourite.
We need to identify both of these things before we think about placing a lay bet. Here is how we go about identifying these opportunities:
Make a list from betfair of horses that are trading at 3.5 or lower, only one per race. It would be wise to leave a space under each horse to add some notes to if you are using a pen and paper. The best time to do this is mid-morning when the markets are beginning to form properly. If you are doing this the night before then you should check the forecasted odds on www.racingpost.co.uk.
Check all of the horses on your list for 'Losing Qualities' i.e. Reasons why the favourite may lose. If you can't find at least 2 qualities for a horse then cross it out and move on to the next one, the more loser qualities a horse has the more likely it is to lose the race.
Any of the following conditions below can be treated as a 'Losing Quality' -:
And the major one which is worth 2 qualities:
Right there you have it, the potential vulnerabilities that lie in wait for people backing the favourite. The more there are the better it is for us layers and the fewer there are the worse it is for us. All of this information can be found out on the racing post website and once you get the hang of it you should be able to do a whole day's racing in under an hour.
2yo and not won
2 year olds will not have run many races and very often their trainers are still looking to determine the best conditions for the horse to win. If from this little form they have found themselves favourite it is down to being over hyped by their slim races so far, of which they still have not won. Because of this uncertainty regarding form they are given a losing quality.
Unproven on particular distance
Horses are not that same as Usain Bolt bringing in gold in any and every distance he runs in. Horses are bred to run for particular distances. A step up in distance from 1 mile to 2 miles is a very big step for a racecourse. Likewise a step in the opposite direction will also bring about unknown results. You will need to consider what distances the horse has been running through recently, or what distance it has been winning on then compare that with the day's race and using a judgement call decide whether or not to assign a losing quality to that horse.
Unproven on particular going
The condition of the ground can make a huge difference to a horses chances. Some horses tend to only run well on good or firm ground, whereas others will run like lightning when it is soft or heavy. This is normally down to where the horse was bred and the horse's particular running action. Regardless, you should check whether the horse is proven on the current going or if he is likely to suffer and then assign a quality accordingly.
Unproven on surface
This is the pretty much the same as the two above; how does the horse run on the day's surface? Assign accordingly.
Is it the horse's first outing over fences or hurdles?
If you see "Hurdle or Chase" in the description for the race you should check to see if the horse has much previous experience in these events. You are particularly looking for horses that are progressing from flat races to hurdles or upgrading from hurdles to larger chase fences. Obstacles in a horses way can turn the whole playing field upside down, really fast horses can become disoriented and not amount to anything. Therefore give any runners with no previous jumping experience a losing quality.
Has the horse been out of action for an extended period of time?
The number of days since a horse's last run is normally indicated by a small number next to the horses name on the race card. What we are looking for are horses that have been away from the racing scene long enough that their previous form becomes negligible. Therefore give any horse that has been out of action for any longer than 60 days a losing quality.
Is the horse carrying excess weight that may hinder its chances?
This one will not be one you find coming up all of the time, but is definitely one you should consider. If the favourite is carrying significantly more weight than some of its counterparts then it should be counted as a losing quality.
Is the field particularly large?
This is probably the easiest, if the horse is running in a field of 15 or more horses give it a losing quality. Not only does a large field mean more competitors but it means an increased probability of not getting a clear run in a flat race and that the horse could get brought down or hampered in a jumps race. More competitors brings about more unknown variables.
Is the horse running in a race that is a significant step up in class?
Take a look at the horses last few run outs. If the horse was performing terrifically in a class C series of races it is not likely to mimic the same results in a class A race. To pass as a losing quality the horse should be running in a race that is at least 2 grades higher.
Is this the first race for the horse?
This is relatively easy to find out, if the horse has no form figures next to its name it is usually a new racer, confirm this on the racing post website and assign 2 loser qualities. However with these selections you will need to make sure that there is other horses in the race that have the potential to win. A new racer on the card against 3-4 poor form horses may well be the deserved favourite, but a new racer going up against some horses coming back into form will be a good lay.
Now you have identified the horses for the day that have at least 2 loser qualities against their names. Now we need to satisfy the last part of this laying formula, we need to find potential victors.
If we are going to put money on a horse losing a race we need to be fairly certain that there is at least one horse in the race that can beat it. Plain common sense tells us that.
Start with the horse with the lowest odds excluding our potential lay. Compare this horse agains our list of strikes paying close attention to the strikes against the favourite. If the horse fairs the same or better than our potential lay then we have a solid competitor.
If you cannot find enough information saying that some of these horses can knock off our potential then don't make the bet. There will be plenty of chances when the outcome is more obvious.
After you have arrived at a selection, you will have identified a short-priced horse that has some serious questions about its chances of victory, especially due to the level of competition involved.
Once you have gotten used to going through all of these factors you will find that you can easily get through an entire day's racing calendar in around an hour sometimes even less!
Using this formula you will know exactly why you are placing the bets and knowing exactly why the horse you picked to lay did not win the race.
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